AGP Executive Report

NATO Summit Pressure: The US is urging allies to move faster toward the 5% of GDP defense-spending goal ahead of Ankara, with Matt Whitaker pointing to the Baltics as leaders while warning others to “step up immediately.” Latvia’s AirBaltic Watch: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs says the state won’t fund airBaltic again without a revised business plan and “ironclad” clarity on routes and a strategic investor. Security & Espionage: Latvia’s State Security Service says four Latvian citizens are accused of spying for Russia via “Baltic Antifascists,” including alleged intel on NAF locations and Riga Airport security. Spyware Accountability: Civil society and MEPs are demanding EU action after Citizen Lab reported Pegasus infections of PEGA committee member Stelios Kouloglou in 2022 and 2023, raising alarms about parliamentary oversight. Ukraine Drone Diplomacy: Kyiv says it aims to sign drone-related defense agreements with at least seven NATO states by year-end, with Latvia already among the partners. Public Services Strain: Riga-area bus trips were cancelled in bulk due to a driver shortage, with the operator citing sick leave and a shrinking workforce.

NATO Summit Fallout: Ahead of the Ankara meeting, Kyiv says Russian strikes killed 14 in overnight attacks on Kyiv, while NATO allies debate unity and defense spending as Eastern Europe prepares for “first days alone.” Latvia Security: Latvia’s State Security Service (VDD) has asked prosecutors to pursue four Latvian suspects accused of collecting intelligence for Russia via the pro-Kremlin Baltic Antifascists, including details on Riga Airport and border/defense measures. Policing Accountability: Latvia’s Internal Security Bureau has referred a case to prosecutors over alleged abuse of authority by three Rīga State Police officials, including unjustified stun-gun use. Public Media Row: Latvian Public Media (LSM) says it reached a compromise after backlash over rebranding, keeping Latvian Radio and Latvian Television brand names for now. Elections Watch: LETA analysis of Saeima candidate lists finds the pool is smaller, older, and more academically credentialed than in 2022. Cross-border Crime: Irish and Latvian police, with Europol and Eurojust, dismantled a gangmaster network tied to labour exploitation of Latvian workers in Ireland. Business & Transport: Gategroup expands in the Baltics by acquiring airline catering and onboard retail operations in Riga and Tallinn. EU/Travel Rules: A new EU directive banning extra seat-selection fees is already causing disputes, including an airBaltic case involving a six-year-old seated away from parents.

NATO Summit Focus: Ahead of the July 7-8 Ankara summit, NATO diplomats and leaders are stressing unity and solidarity while arguing over defence spending and burden-sharing—with Latvia’s ambassador saying allies must turn commitments into concrete steps. Baltic Security Signals: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met Baltic leaders to underline Germany’s role on NATO’s eastern flank, as Estonia’s PM says Russia is weaker than for years and calls for sustained pressure. Latvia–Russia Trade Impact: Latvia’s Economy Ministry says Russia’s closure of the Karsava–Pytalovo rail crossing won’t hit the economy much, noting rail freight with Russia is down about 92% since 2019. Latvia–Estonia Cooperation: Latvia’s president opened a Tallinn business forum where the two countries signed a memorandum on supply security and strategic reserves, aimed at better crisis coordination. Ukraine Drone Context: Russia’s deputy foreign minister claims Baltic states have provided air corridors for Ukrainian drones, as Ukraine confirms strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. Local/Regional Governance: Estonia banned concerts by a performer linked to a pro-Russian rapper, showing how cultural policy is being pulled into the security debate.

NATO Ankara Summit: NATO diplomats and ambassadors in Turkey are pushing a clear message of “unity and solidarity” ahead of the July 6-7 Ankara Summit, with Latvia’s envoy stressing that allies must turn last year’s 5% defence spending pledge into real capabilities and keep Article 5 and support for Ukraine at the center. Latvia-Russia Trade: Latvia’s Economy Ministry says Russia’s closure of the Karsava–Pytalovo rail crossing won’t hit the economy much, but it underlines a broader geopolitical squeeze as rail freight with Russia has already fallen by nearly 92% since 2019. Baltic Security Warnings: Poland’s PM Donald Tusk says concerns are rising about a possible Russian “provocation” in the coming months, while UK officials reiterate they will defend NATO territory “every inch,” after US warnings to Warsaw about drone/missile or hybrid scenarios. Ukraine Drone Spillover: Russia claims it has verified that Latvia and other Baltic states provided air corridors for Ukrainian drones hitting civilian infrastructure, as the drone war keeps spilling into NATO airspace. Latvia-Italy Ties: Italy’s outgoing ambassador met Latvia’s Saeima Speaker Daiga Mierina, praising Italian troops in Latvia’s NATO brigade and calling for deeper defence-industry cooperation. Border Pressure: Estonia reports heavier summer border queues, with bus traffic and stricter inspections slowing crossings at Koidula and Luhamaa. EU Legal/Integrity: Latvia and other Baltic states are among those blocking Serbia’s EU accession talks over rule-of-law concerns.

NATO Summit Prep: Ahead of the July 7-8 Ankara summit, NATO diplomats and ambassadors in Turkey are pushing a single message: unity and solidarity, with Latvia’s envoy stressing concrete delivery of the 5% defence spending pledge starting in 2027. Baltic Security Tensions: Polish PM Donald Tusk warns that Russia may try to test NATO’s reaction via an armed provocation in coming months, with concerns flagged for the Baltics; the UK also says it will defend every inch of NATO territory. Latvia-Russia Trade Shock: Latvia’s Economy Ministry says Russia’s closure of the Karsava–Pytalovo rail border crossing won’t hit the economy much, but it underlines a broader geopolitical shrinkage of EU-Russia transport links as rail freight with Russia has already fallen about 92% since 2019. Ukraine Tech and Drones: Ukraine confirms it has received the NSM coastal missile system, while Russia claims Baltic states enabled Ukrainian drone air corridors—a dispute that keeps fueling hybrid-threat talk. Cyber and Governance: Latvia’s state forests cyberattack investigation points to another company being identified, and Latvia’s Ombudsman urges stronger protection of property from unauthorised business activity. EU Legal/Rule-of-Law: The Netherlands opposes opening EU accession Cluster 3 for Serbia over rule-of-law concerns, with several states including Latvia backing the block.

Baltic Security & Ukraine Drones: Russia’s deputy foreign minister claims Latvia and other Baltic states provided “air corridors” for Ukrainian drone strikes, renewing pressure on Riga as it also faces reports of a planned drone factory near the border. NATO Summit Prep: Germany’s Chancellor Merz met Baltic leaders ahead of the Ankara NATO summit, with President Rinkēvičs stressing turning the 5% GDP pledge into real capabilities, keeping Article 5 unity, and countering Russian and Belarusian hybrid threats. Poland Provocation Watch: Multiple reports say the US warned Warsaw about a possible limited Russian “hybrid” provocation—drone or missile attacks on infrastructure or a border incident—to test NATO resolve and weaken support for Ukraine. Latvia–EU Legal Cooperation: Latvia’s Council of Sworn Advocates signed a cooperation deal with Lexu AI to promote responsible, secure AI use in legal work. Cyber & Infrastructure: Latvia’s state forests investigation continues to draw attention after reports of a hacker staying undetected for days and further attacks tied to the case. EU Crypto Regulation: ESMA updated its MiCA register, adding 37 licensed crypto-asset providers, including one Latvian firm. Diplomatic Ties: Italy’s ambassador to Riga met Parliament Speaker Daiga Mierina, highlighting defense cooperation and Italian participation in Latvia’s NATO brigade.

Baltic Security Watch: The US has reportedly warned Poland that Russia may stage an armed “provocation” to test NATO’s resolve—using drones or missiles against critical infrastructure, simulated air strikes to trigger air defences, or even a limited border incursion from Kaliningrad or Belarus—aimed at driving wedges inside the alliance and pressuring allies to cut support for Ukraine. Latvia–Estonia Cooperation: Latvia and Estonia move to coordinate on strategic reserves, with a memorandum setting up closer crisis planning and information exchange. NATO Summit Context: Ahead of the Ankara summit, debates over defence spending and transatlantic unity keep sharpening, with Baltic leaders pushing for stronger deterrence. Cybersecurity: Cert.lv says the same ransomware actor behind the Latvijas valsts meži breach also hit pharmaceutical firm Olpha, with unauthorised access to at least one server and deleted logs detected. Legal Tech: Latvia’s Council of Sworn Advocates signs a cooperation deal with Lexu AI to promote responsible, secure AI use in legal work. Crypto Regulation: ESMA updates its MiCA register, adding 37 licensed crypto-asset providers, including one Latvia-linked authorisation. Elections: With three months to Latvia’s parliamentary vote, polling shows the United List and Latvia First tied at the top, while other parties jockey for position.

EU Defence Budget Debate: Estonia’s PM warns that failing to deter Putin will cost more than paying for defence, as EU leaders prepare for multiple summits including the Ankara meeting with the US. Baltic Security & Supplies: Latvia and Estonia sign a memorandum to cooperate on supply security and strategic state reserves, with a 2026–2028 action plan. Border Pressure in Latvia: Latvia’s border guard says it can’t always intercept every illegal crossing on the Belarus route when several incidents happen at once, and enhanced border security has been extended. Cybersecurity Watch: Cert.lv says the same ransomware threat actor behind the Latvijas valsts meži attack also compromised a server at pharma firm Olpha, while Sadales tīkls reports daily cyberattack attempts. Russia–NATO Tensions: The US warns Russia is plotting a provocation on Poland to test NATO resolve, with Polish officials also discussing possible “false flag” scenarios. Property Curbs on Russians/Belarusians: Estonia approves a bill restricting real estate purchases by Russian and Belarusian citizens and controlled entities without long-term residence permits. Public Health: A salmonella outbreak linked to flavoured instant noodles has spread across 14 countries, including Latvia. Economy & Markets: Latvia’s new car market declines slightly in early 2026, with experts pointing to the end of government support for greener vehicles as a key factor.

Latvian Security & Borders: Latvia extended enhanced border security along the Latvian–Belarusian line until Dec. 31, citing tens of thousands of prevented illegal crossings since 2021 and continued pressure in Ludza, Krāslava, Daugavpils and Rēzekne areas. Cyber & State Systems: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said a hacker stayed inside “Latvijas valsts meži” for days before active operations, with the government now questioning why detection tools and a cybersecurity audit missed the problem. Elections Preparedness: Latvia’s Central Election Commission outlined emergency procedures for polling stations, prioritising staff and voter safety during threats like air raids while aiming to keep voting running. Energy & Resilience: Ukraine reported rapid progress on restoring capacity and boosting decentralized generation, while Latvia’s electricity network operator said it faces cyberattacks every day—repelled so far, but requiring ongoing investment. NATO & Regional Defence: Latvia’s land forces are set under new NATO command structures on the eastern flank, as Ankara summit talks focus on defence spending and readiness. Legal & Property Rights: The Ombudsman warned Latvia’s business registration rules can leave property owners exposed when unauthorised parties register a company at their address. International Developments: Russia temporarily closed multiple rail border crossings with Finland, Estonia and Latvia, disrupting passenger and freight movement.

Rail Baltica & Transport Policy: Latvia’s finance minister says Rail Baltica can’t be abandoned, but expects “difficult decisions” and calls for clearer scope on what Latvia will build versus not. NATO Command & Eastern Flank: Latvia and Estonia’s land forces have been placed under NATO’s 1st German-Dutch Corps, with a transfer ceremony on the Latvia-Estonia border as the alliance reshuffles command to speed up response. Russian Pressure on Borders: Russia has temporarily suspended several railway border crossings with Finland, Estonia and Latvia, prompting rerouting and raising logistics uncertainty. Elections Preparedness: Latvia’s Central Election Commission lays out emergency procedures for polling stations, prioritising staff and voter safety during threats like air-raid alerts. Security & Defence Tech: LMT and Latvijas dzelzceļš demonstrate a private 5G network for railway operations, aimed at meeting future EU rail communications requirements. Local Governance & Public Trust: Residents in Lēdurga oppose a biomethane expansion over fears of odour, road damage and water contamination. Youth & Labour Market: Latvia reports remaining summer job openings for pupils, with reminders on working-hour limits for minors and teens. International Diplomacy: UAE leaders congratulate Latvia’s newly appointed prime minister, while Latvia and Estonia’s presidents reaffirm regional security and economic cooperation.

Baltic Security & NATO Command: Latvia and Estonia’s land forces have been placed under NATO’s new 1st German-Dutch Corps command, with a formal handover ceremony on the Latvia–Estonia border as the alliance reshapes its eastern-flank structure to speed up readiness. Russian Pressure on Transport: Russia has suspended rail operations at seven border crossings with Finland, Estonia and Latvia from July 1, including Pechory–Pskovskiye (Estonia) and Pytalovo (Latvia), disrupting passenger and freight links; Estonia says it rerouted freight via Narva. Cyber & Critical Infrastructure: Cert.lv says a leaked cache from the cyberattack on Latvijas valsts meži includes internal documents, source code, keys and password hashes, and warns third parties to change credentials while LVM restores systems. EU Regulation Watch: From July 1, the EU introduces a €3 duty on small parcels under €150; Switzerland is likely spared for imports into Switzerland, but could be affected when sending to EU states. Latvia’s Public Health: The Health Inspectorate cleared Stradiņš Hospital staff after a March shooting incident, though the victim may seek a re-evaluation. Economy & Governance: Latvia marks 10 years since joining the OECD, highlighting governance and business-environment reforms. Tech & Industry: Latvijas dzelzceļš and LMT demonstrated private 5G for railway operations in preparation for future EU rail communications requirements.

Eastern Border Security: Latvia will deploy additional air defence systems along the eastern border, but the Defence Ministry won’t name the exact types for operational security. Russian Pressure on Mobility: Russia has ordered the temporary suspension of rail traffic at seven border railway checkpoints with Finland, Estonia and Latvia from 1 July, affecting freight and passenger movement. NATO Command Shift: Germany and the Netherlands have taken command of NATO’s eastern flank in Estonia, with a new joint headquarters and expanded readiness for Estonia and Latvia. U.S.-Latvia Military Ties: President Edgars Rinkēvičs and U.S. Ambassador Melissa Argyros visited U.S. troops at Lielvārde Air Base to mark the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence and underline NATO deterrence. Public Health: Latvia’s Immunisation Council is urging the government to fund universal passive immunisation against RSV for newborns, warning delays will drive hospital strain. Food Resilience: The government approved €9m for national food reserves to prepare for crises, focusing on long-shelf-life, easy-to-distribute supplies. Rail Baltica Reality Check: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs says completing Rail Baltica across all three Baltics by 2030 is “mathematically impossible,” calling for tighter political coordination. Latvia-Ukraine Tech Cooperation: Latvia and Ukraine plan a joint drone production facility near the Russian border, framed as a practical response to the security environment. Governance & Integrity: Council of Europe’s GRECO stresses top officials must lead by example in anti-corruption and integrity reforms. Regional Finance: Region Trade Bank appointed an international board focused on financial integrity, sanctions policy and payment systems, with Latvian FATF expertise included.

Baltic Security Command Shift: NATO’s land forces in Estonia and Latvia are now under the new German–Dutch Corps after a Valga–Valka handover, with ministers from Germany, the Netherlands, Estonia and Latvia attending and the corps tasked with exercises, readiness and rapid defence planning. US Deterrence Promise: U.S. Gen. Chris Donahue backed the move, saying the US will “stand alongside” allies and that deterrence is built with “boots in the mud,” as he prepares to leave his post. Russia Border Pressure: Russia will temporarily suspend railway traffic at seven checkpoints on the Finland–Estonia–Latvia frontier from July 1, including Pechory-Pskovskiye (Estonia) and Pytalovo (Latvia), tightening already limited land links. Latvia–Ukraine Drone Deal: Latvia and Ukraine will build a joint drone manufacturing facility in Latgale near the Russian and Belarus borders, with Latvia supplying anti-drone systems and Ukraine providing strike and maritime drones. Civil Service Law: President Rinkēvičs signed amendments easing some senior civil service appointments by reducing mandatory open competition in specific cases, including allowing the PM to appoint the State Chancellery director without open recruitment. Corruption Integrity Focus: Council of Europe’s GRECO stresses that top government leaders must set the tone in combating corruption and promoting integrity. Latvian Courts & Security: A Latvian man received a 5.5-year prison sentence for spying for Russia, passing information to GRU on military and political developments and NATO-related matters. Public Health Alert: Latvia reported salmonella cases linked to “Reeva” instant noodles eaten dry, affecting school-age children.

Espionage Sentences: A Latvian man was sentenced to five years and six months for spying for Russia’s GRU, passing information on Spilve airfield, SIM-card purchasing conditions, military and political developments, aid to Ukraine, and NATO activity; prosecutors say the handler has been identified and separate proceedings opened. Security & Deterrence: NATO has assigned a second command zone for the Baltic region, with the German-Dutch Corps taking charge of exercises and, in a conflict, defence of the eastern flank; a US general said Washington will back Baltic defence “with boots in the mud.” Ukraine Drone Cooperation: Latvia confirmed a deal with Ukraine to help establish joint drone manufacturing near the eastern border with Russia and close to Belarus, following an emergency cabinet meeting. Rail Baltica Funding Crunch: Latvia’s public broadcaster reports a roughly €10bn gap to finish Rail Baltica’s first phase, with EU support after 2028 uncertain and Baltic states likely needing to cover more. Language Policy Fallout: Latvia’s culture minister ordered Russian removed from the public sphere in cultural institutions, a move that could disrupt two Russian-language theatres’ operations. Youth Radicalisation Watch: The VDD warns youth radicalisation is rising as extremist groups recruit online via platforms and gaming communities. International Mobility Fees: ETIAS rules will add a €20 charge (about £17) for UK and Scottish travellers to a long list of European destinations, including Latvia, with exemptions for children and those over 70.

Latvia-Ukraine Defense Industry: Latvia and Ukraine are moving fast on unmanned systems, with plans for a joint UAV/drone manufacturing facility near the border with Russia and Belarus, plus interceptor drone defenses to reduce the need to scramble aircraft. Eastern Flank Security: Lithuania says there are no signs of a large-scale Russian attack on the Baltics, but sabotage threats against critical infrastructure remain high, echoing Latvia’s own intelligence warnings about possible hybrid provocations. NATO Airspace Tensions: Estonia’s foreign minister argues that stray Ukrainian drones into NATO territory are an “acceptable price” for hitting Russia’s oil and military targets, while noting Latvia’s prior political fallout over how such incidents were handled. EU Sanctions & Trade: Latvia is drafting amendments to ban imports of certain industrial goods from Russia and Belarus under a new support framework for Ukrainian civilians, with the final list to be set by cabinet rules. Anti-Fraud Enforcement: EPPO arrested 11 suspects across Germany, Poland and Latvia in a diesel VAT fraud probe linked to €240m losses, targeting “designer fuels” routed through complex transactions. Domestic Politics: For Stability! submitted candidate lists for Latvia’s 15th Saeima elections, with a wanted figure in the Riga list and a party faction collapse looming in the background. Energy Transition: The EU backed a major energy storage deployment target, aiming to raise annual storage from about 12 GW (2025) to roughly 45 GW (2026-2028).

Drone Deal: Latvia and Ukraine are set to cooperate on unmanned systems, including rapid joint drone production with a facility planned near Latvia’s border with Russia, while new counter-drone systems are expected to be operational along the Belarus and Russian borders in July–August. NATO Security Signals: Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau says Russia is more likely to use hybrid attacks and provocations than a large-scale conventional assault, aiming to pressure NATO to cut Ukraine support—though it judges success as unlikely. Baltic Command Shift: From July 1, Latvia’s and Estonia’s land forces move under NATO’s 1st German/Netherlands Corps, with the outgoing command refocusing on Poland and Lithuania and the Suwałki Corridor. Public Safety Pressure: Riga’s Imanta rail crossing drew a protest demanding automatic barriers after two fatal accidents in eight months. Economy & Regulation: Bolt reported its first net profit (900k euros) and rising revenue, while Latvia’s Competition Council previously found no monopoly abuse. Markets: ECB governor Mārtiņš Kazāks urged against rushed multiple rate hikes, easing pressure on risk assets. Weather: Latvia faces a tropical night and high UV levels, with more showers and thunderstorms expected next.