AGP Executive Report

EU Summit: Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs urged the EU to ban Russian grain transit across the Baltics, saying Latvia cannot impose a unilateral ban without risking €200 million to €800 million in claims. Leaders remain divided over the 2028–34 budget and when to reach a deal. Kulbergs also quipped that Europeans could fund Ukraine by giving up one beer a year. Security and Borders: Saeima backed tougher penalties for illegal migration offences, including prison terms of up to 12 years. Latvia is also developing automated anti-drone defences along its Russian border, with soldiers retaining the final decision to fire. Parliament and Media: Opposition MP Linda Liepiņa has called for an investigation into allegations that lawmaker Andrejs Judins intimidated a Saeima staff member; the claims have not been independently established. Separately, proposed amendments could alter or stall the planned merger of Latvian Radio and Latvian Television into unified public media.

Border Security: A masked group calling itself “Black Rus” claimed responsibility for an armed incursion into Latvia from Belarus, where men tried to bring migrants across the border and damaged surveillance equipment. Latvia’s NATO StratCom chief says the group may be a front for Russian or Belarusian intelligence. Election Turnout: Only 51% of voters took part in Latvia’s October 3 Saeima election. A University of Latvia researcher says the decline reflects a wider trend, but Latvia’s causes need closer study. Regional Defence: Estonia’s defence minister warned Russia could test a NATO member after the Ukraine war, naming Latvia as a possible target. NATO chief Mark Rutte, visiting Estonia, highlighted alliance forces in the region and Estonia’s defence spending above 5% of GDP. Russian Grain Transit: Prime Minister Kulbergs says Latvia cannot fully ban Russian grain transit, citing EU rules and potential costs of hundreds of millions of euros. Media and Security: Latvia has formally blacklisted Russian journalist Leonid Ragozin, withholding the national-security grounds; Ragozin says the move targets his critical reporting.

Border Security: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs says border services will get wider powers, including greater scope to use force, after masked armed men helped migrants cross from Belarus and damaged infrastructure. A group likely linked to Belarusian and Russian intelligence has claimed responsibility for sabotage. Russian Grain Transit: Kulbergs says Latvia cannot impose a full ban or sharply raise transit fees because the EU controls the rules and legal action could cost €200 million to €800 million. Regional Threats: Estonia’s defence minister warns Russia may test a NATO member after the war in Ukraine, naming Latvia as a possible target. Press and Courts: Latvia has blacklisted Russian journalist Leonid Ragozin on national-security grounds. The Constitutional Court also declined to hear the prosecutor general’s challenge over timber-industry support, ruling he was not entitled to bring that case.

Border Security: A group calling itself Black Rus has claimed responsibility for an armed incursion on Latvia’s border with Belarus, where masked men allegedly damaged equipment and tried to push migrants across. Latvia’s security service has opened criminal proceedings; President Alexander Lukashenko denies Belarusian involvement and says Latvia staged the incident. Regional Defence: Estonia’s new defence minister, Martin Herem, warned Russia may test a NATO country after the war in Ukraine, naming Latvia as a possible target. Ukrainian intelligence says Moscow is considering future conflict scenarios involving the Baltics, alongside sabotage and other hybrid tactics. Defence Industry: Latvia’s government has approved plans for an anti-tank mine factory, due to begin production in 2028, to supply the armed forces and support exports. EU Policy: Latvia is pitching itself as a fintech hub, with Latvijas Banka issuing more than 20 fintech licences this year. Latvia–Estonia Ties: President Edgars Rinkēvičs hosted Estonia’s new president, Ülle Madise, for talks on defence cooperation, regional security and support for Ukraine.

Latvia–Estonia Ties: President Edgars Rinkēvičs hosted Estonia’s new president, Ülle Madise, for talks on defence-industry cooperation, NATO’s eastern flank and support for Ukraine. Defence Industry: The government approved a Latvian anti-tank mine factory, expected to open in 2028 and supply the armed forces as well as export markets. Border Security: A group calling itself Black Rus claimed an armed incursion near the Belarus border, including damage to surveillance equipment and an attempt to push migrants into Latvia. A NATO communications official cited signs of possible Russian and Belarusian intelligence involvement; Alexander Lukashenko denied Belarus’s role and accused Latvia of staging the incident. Government Formation: Former president Egils Levits urged parties not to rush coalition talks, saying a stable agreement could be ready by Independence Day on November 18. He said a United List–National Alliance coalition might need New Unity to secure a stronger majority. Economic Outlook: The IMF forecasts Latvia’s economy will grow 2.3% this year, the Baltics’ second-fastest pace, with inflation at 3.6%.

Security: Two Latvian nationals arrested after an alleged breach at RAF Molesworth in England have been released on bail; British counterterrorism police are investigating, with no charges reported. Election: Latvia’s pro-Ukraine, pro-Western course appears set to continue, though election coverage points to growing populist and pro-Russian support and the influence of TikTok politics. Belarus: Latvia and Ukraine agreed to coordinate pressure on Minsk, while Latvian analysts suspect a group claiming an armed border incursion may be a front for Russian or Belarusian hybrid operations. Defence: Latvia has received its first locally assembled Hunter infantry fighting vehicle; 84 are planned for delivery by 2029. AirBaltic: The airline reported a €128.2 million first-half loss, up sharply from €1.7 million a year earlier, as a US court allowed it to maintain key operations during bankruptcy proceedings.

airBaltic Restructuring: A U.S. bankruptcy court has allowed the Latvian airline to maintain key contracts, insurance, loyalty programmes and supplier payments during Chapter 11 proceedings. A hearing on €35 million in financing was postponed to October 19. Foreign Policy: Foreign Minister Baiba Braže said Georgians want EU membership but their government has not taken the necessary steps. She also urged the EU to examine its own sanctions record before criticizing Washington’s Russian diesel deal. Election Watch: A review of Latvia’s parliamentary results warns that social-media populism and pro-Russian voices could gain ground, with potential consequences for media freedom, human rights and civil society. Security: Latvia’s upcoming EU-backed defence hackathon will focus on autonomous systems to detect and prioritize low-altitude threats. Separately, two Latvian nationals arrested after a breach at the UK’s RAF Molesworth base have been released on bail; the investigation is ongoing.

Ukraine Support: Latvia has delivered the first 30 of 60 generators to Chernihiv Oblast, helping Ukraine cope with power shortages. The Baltic states are also urging the EU to ban Russian grain transit, a move Kyiv welcomed. Sanctions: Latvia’s Foreign Ministry says a US-Russia diesel deal sends a mixed signal on sanctions and has urged Washington to increase pressure on Moscow. Security: Two Latvian men arrested after a breach at RAF Molesworth, which hosts US and NATO intelligence operations, have been released on bail as UK counterterrorism police investigate. NATO is also strengthening Baltic air defences, with Turkish F-16s deployed to Latvia. Border: After armed men crossed from Belarus and damaged surveillance equipment, Latvia extended its operation against illegal migration at the border through year-end. Politics: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s party won the strongest single-party result since independence, but turnout was a record-low 51.8%, raising concerns about public engagement.

Security: Two Latvian nationals arrested after entering RAF Molesworth, a UK base hosting US and NATO intelligence operations, have been released on bail. A national security investigation continues; police have not disclosed a motive. Latvia is also strengthening eastern-border surveillance and air defences as NATO reinforces Baltic airspace. Belarus Border: Latvia reported armed men crossing from Belarus, pushing migrants toward the border and damaging surveillance equipment. Riga extended its operation against illegal migration through year-end. Russia Policy: Latvia says Donald Trump’s Russian diesel deal sends a mixed signal on sanctions and is urging Washington to maintain pressure on Moscow. The Baltic states are pressing the EU to ban Russian grain transit, a move Ukraine welcomed. Election: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List won 35.3% and 42 Saeima seats, the strongest result for one party since independence, despite record-low turnout of 51.8%. Kulbergs has begun coalition talks. Domestic Policy: Saeima’s defence committee delayed a bill that would create a route to permanent residency for some Ukrainians, pending a Finance Ministry assessment. Latvia also extended restrictions on municipal officials’ travel to Russia and Belarus.

Sanctions and Ukraine: Latvia’s Foreign Ministry says the small volume of Russian diesel approved by Donald Trump sends Moscow a mixed signal on easing sanctions. Riga urged Washington to increase pressure on Russia. Baltic Defence: NATO is bolstering airspace protection, while Latvia plans a drone surveillance “wall” on its eastern border. Defence Minister Raivis Melnis thanked Türkiye for deploying F-16s to support NATO air-defence operations. UK Security Probe: Two Latvian nationals arrested after entering RAF Molesworth, a base hosting U.S. and NATO intelligence operations, have been released on bail. British police say the investigation continues; they have disclosed no motive. Border Tensions: Latvia says armed, masked men from Belarus pushed migrants across the border, threatened soldiers and damaged surveillance equipment. The border guard is seeking greater powers to protect staff. Government Formation: After a record-low 51.8% turnout, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List won 35.3% of the vote and 42 seats. The president has asked him to form the next government. Support for Ukrainians: A Saeima committee held back a bill that would create a special route to permanent residence for some Ukrainians, pending a review of its budget impact.

Security: Two Latvian nationals arrested after entering RAF Molesworth, a UK base hosting US and NATO intelligence operations, have been released on bail. British counterterrorism police say the investigation is ongoing and have found no link to a separate RAF Fairford incident. Election: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s United List won 35.3% and 42 of 100 Saeima seats, but turnout was just 51.8%, the lowest since 1993. The result strengthens Latvia’s pro-Ukraine government while raising concerns about weak public engagement and political divisions. Border: Latvia says armed, masked escorts pushed migrants toward its border from Belarus, threatened soldiers and damaged surveillance equipment. The border guard is seeking greater powers amid rising tensions. Russia policy: Parliament has barred local council members from travelling to Russia and Belarus, extending restrictions already imposed on national officials. Latvia’s leaders have also joined Estonia and Lithuania in urging the EU to ban Russian grain transit, arguing Moscow should not profit from exports while attacking Ukraine’s trade routes.

RAF Base Investigation: Two Latvian men arrested after entering RAF Molesworth, a UK base hosting US and NATO intelligence operations, have been released on bail. British police say the investigation is ongoing and have not established a motive. Russian Grain Transit: Latvia’s prime minister joined Estonian and Lithuanian leaders in urging the EU to ban Russian grain transit, arguing Moscow should not profit from exports while attacking Ukraine’s trade routes. Local Government: Latvia’s parliament barred municipal councillors from travelling to Russia and Belarus, citing their access to sensitive information on infrastructure and civil defence. Border Security: After armed, masked escorts pushed migrants toward Latvia from Belarus and surveillance equipment was damaged, the border guard called for stronger powers to protect staff and secure the frontier. Government Formation: Following the United List’s record election win, President Edgars Rinkēvičs asked incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs to form the next government. Pro-Russian Activism: A Latvian court sentenced an activist to six years in prison for donating €43 toward Russian military equipment.

Security Investigation: Two Latvian men arrested inside RAF Molesworth, a UK base hosting US and NATO intelligence operations, have been released on bail. Counter-terrorism police say they are still investigating their motive and have found no link to a separate incident at RAF Fairford. EU and Russia Policy: Latvia’s prime minister joined Estonia and Lithuania in urging the EU to ban Russian grain transit, arguing shipments help Moscow profit while it attacks Ukraine’s export routes. Local Government: Latvia’s parliament approved a ban on city and regional councillors travelling to Russia and Belarus, citing their access to sensitive local information. Government Formation: After the United List’s record election win, President Edgars Rinkēvičs asked incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs to form the next government. Court Ruling: The Supreme Court overturned the regional court’s ruling against pro-Kremlin activist Jeļena Kreile and sent her case back for retrial.

Security: UK counter-terrorism police are investigating after two Latvian men living in Britain were arrested inside RAF Molesworth, a base hosting US and NATO intelligence operations. They face suspicion of trespass, criminal damage and entering a prohibited site; police say there is no known link to a separate RAF Fairford case. Border Tensions: Armed men from Belarus allegedly pushed migrants into Latvia, threatened border guards and stole surveillance cameras. Latvia has extended its operation against illegal migration on the border until year’s end. Government Formation: After the United List’s record election win, President Edgars Rinkēvičs asked incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs to form the next government. A quarter of postal votes were ruled invalid, adding scrutiny to the election process. Pro-Russian Activism: A Latvian court sentenced a woman to six years in prison for sending €43 toward Russian military equipment. Public Finances: The Finance Ministry has proposed austerity measures, while the Fiscal Council chair says a temporary bank windfall tax could help reduce the deficit.

UK Security Probe: Two Latvian nationals living in the UK were arrested after a breach at RAF Molesworth, a US and NATO intelligence hub. They face suspicion of entering a prohibited site for a purpose prejudicial to the UK; investigators say there is no established link to a separate RAF Fairford incident. Border Security: Armed, masked men from Belarus reportedly pushed migrants toward Latvia, threatened Latvian soldiers, then crossed the border, damaged equipment and stole surveillance cameras. Latvia has extended its border operation through year-end, while Lithuania plans to deploy troops near Kaliningrad. Government Formation: After the United List’s historic election win, President Edgars Rinkēvičs asked incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs to form the next government; coalition talks are under way. Election Oversight: Reports say a quarter of postal ballots were ruled invalid. National Security: A Latvian court sentenced Polina Kamlyova to six years in prison for helping fund equipment intended for Russian forces.

Border Security: Armed, masked escorts pushed at least 20 migrants toward Latvia from Belarus and threatened Latvian personnel; later, masked intruders damaged border equipment and stole surveillance cameras. Latvia has extended Operation Vilkatis through year-end. Lithuania has requested troops to help guard its border with Kaliningrad, while the U.S. and Ukraine voiced support for Latvia. Government Formation: After the United List’s historic election win, President Edgars Rinkēvičs asked incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs to form a government. Kulbergs says coalition partners must back change; the president has stressed continuity on defence, foreign policy and support for Ukraine. Media and Security: Latvia is moving to expel Russian journalist Leonid Ragozin, a former BBC producer, citing information from security authorities and concerns about serving Russian interests.