AGP Executive Report

NATO Eastern Flank Alarm: Latvia’s intelligence says Russia may be preparing “military provocations” against the Baltic states or Poland, likely via hybrid actions like drones and missiles to test NATO unity and pressure allies to cut support for Ukraine. Ukraine-Latvia Defense Ties: Presidents Zelenskyy and Rinkēvičs discussed the Drone Deal and Ukraine’s EU accession talks, with Latvia adding €7m to the PURL programme. Air Defense Push: Defence Minister Raivis Melnis says Latvia will deploy additional air defence systems and improve radar/interception along the eastern border, alongside shelter and communications planning for local governments. Riga Politics: A SKDS survey shows falling approval for Riga City Council leadership, with low name recognition and negative sentiment flagged as key issues. Cybersecurity Watch: The LVM cyberattack is being used as a warning sign that Latvia’s strategic infrastructure remains vulnerable, with officials urging other institutions to audit their systems. EU Consumer Law: Latvia voted against the EU’s long-awaited air passenger rights overhaul (EU261), set to apply by end-2027. Energy & Industry: Latvia’s Prime Prometics tops €100m in annual revenue, while Rolls-Royce Power Systems and Sunly plan major battery storage deployments in Latvia.

Eastern Flank Security: NATO’s eastern flank leaders, meeting in Gdańsk, warned Russia may stage a “provocation” against the Baltic states or Poland to test Western unity, with Latvian intelligence pointing to possible hybrid moves like missiles and drones rather than a full-scale attack. Defense & US ties: Poland’s PM Donald Tusk said the region faces a “highly unstable” threat and called for tighter coordination among border states, while Latvia’s PM Andris Kulbergs stressed the Eastern Flank is defending all of Europe. EU defense planning: MEPs backed the new AGILE rapid defence innovation programme, aiming to speed up disruptive tech adoption across member states and support SMEs. Cybersecurity & elections: Latvia’s Smart Administration minister said the LVM cyberattack shows state infrastructure is still vulnerable, but insisted the electronic voter register was moved to the state before the breach and was not compromised. Latvian language policy: The Culture Ministry ordered institutions to stop using Russian in official activities, with a July 30 deadline for implementation. Ukraine recovery: A major Ukraine reconstruction summit opened in Poland without President Zelensky amid a Kyiv–Warsaw dispute, as the EU announced the first tranche of its Ukraine loan. Energy grid politics: EU governments are set to resist Brussels’ push to control electricity supergrid planning, but may accept a limited Commission role.

EU Defence Innovation: MEPs backed the new AGILE programme to speed up disruptive defence tech, with simpler SME funding and rules aimed at keeping results usable for Ukraine. Eastern Flank Watch: Eastern-border EU states, including Latvia, pushed for the “Eastern Flank Watch” to be approved and funded fast as drone threats rise. Latvian Language Policy: Latvia’s Culture Ministry ordered institutions to stop using Russian in official activities, with a July 30 deadline and carve-outs for professional art. Education Reform Talk: The Education Minister floated shifting Latvia’s school structure toward 11 grades, arguing exams already peak earlier. Riga Politics: A new SKDS poll shows most Riga City Council leaders losing popularity, with sharp drops for key committee chairs. Cybersecurity & Elections Tech: A cyberattack hit Latvian State Forests’ IT systems, while election-system development was said to be unaffected. Transport Contract: Vivi will fine Škoda Vagonka €5.7m over delayed electric trains and unresolved defects. Crypto Regulation: Binance withdrew its Greece MiCA bid and is seeking another EU route; Latvia’s MiCA license was granted to Kanga’s Latvia unit. Ukraine Recovery Summit: A major reconstruction conference opened in Gdansk without Zelenskyy, amid a Kyiv-Warsaw diplomatic row.

Energy Security & EU Policy: A sharp drop in oil prices is being flagged as a “dangerous” moment for Europe’s energy security, because the real cost of importing fuel through risky routes often isn’t counted until crises force expensive new build-outs. Defense & Regional Threats: Germany’s defense industry chief says production is now scaling up, while Latvia’s wider region remains on alert for Russian missile/drone provocations and hybrid escalation. Ukraine Reconstruction Diplomacy: An Ukraine recovery summit in Gdansk opens without Zelensky, with the event overshadowed by a Kyiv–Warsaw row over how Ukraine honors wartime figures. Latvia’s Procurement & Accountability: Latvian rail operator PV/Vivi will fine Škoda Vagonka €5.7m for delayed electric trains and unresolved defects, after review by PwC and a Latvian law firm. Riga Politics: A new SKDS poll shows most Riga City Council leaders losing popularity, with several committee chairs hitting steep declines. Local Culture Project: The Lūznava wooden school restoration plan is put on hold, delaying a planned inclusive cultural and tourism center. Crypto Regulation Watch (Latvia in the mix): Binance withdraws its Greece MiCA bid and seeks another EU route; Latvia is named among regulators it approached, as the July 1 licensing deadline nears. Aviation Spotlight: Riga International Airport wins ACI Europe’s “Best Airport” award in the 5–10 million passenger category. Foreign Policy & Education: Latvia’s FM Baiba Braže visits Cambridge to discuss geopolitics and closer ties.

Latvia’s Security Posture: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may escalate with hybrid provocations—drones, missiles, cyber and covert actions—aimed at pressuring NATO’s eastern flank to stop backing Ukraine. US–Baltic Military Readiness: The US Navy is building logistics and landing infrastructure in Latvia for BALTOPS 2026, including ramps and temporary Arctic facilities, as officials flag growing Russian risk. EU Defence Finance: Latvia is set to benefit from a €3.5bn EU SAFE defence loan focused on drone development. Crypto Regulation in the EU: Binance says it will stay in Europe and seek a new MiCA authorization pathway after Greece rejected its licence bid; talks reportedly include Latvia, but officials remain cautious. Aviation & Connectivity: ACI EUROPE named Riga International Airport a category winner in Prague, while the EU funds Baltic Sea and Mediterranean “Regional Cable Hubs” to protect submarine cables. Road Safety: A Latvian survey finds 32% of drivers admit driving after drinking, with higher shares reporting driving above the legal limit.

Baltic Security Watch: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may stage hybrid provocations against the Baltic states or Poland to pressure NATO into easing support for Ukraine, stressing the risk of miscalculation and pointing to drones and other covert actions rather than a full conventional attack. Defense & Readiness: NATO’s Baltic Sea posture is being reinforced through exercises like Baltops 2026, with US Navy Seabees building rapid-deployment boat ramps in Liepāja to speed reinforcement and logistics in a crisis. EU Critical Infrastructure: The European Commission is funding Baltic and Mediterranean “Regional Cable Hubs” (€5.8m total) and launching a €40m call to expand submarine cable repair capacity, aiming to detect and respond faster to sabotage threats. Latvia-Linked Tech & War Industry: Latvia’s defense push also intersects with EU drone development financing, while broader reporting highlights Ukraine’s rapid scaling of unmanned systems as a model for European security integration. Fact-Checking & Info Integrity: A new fact-check debunks claims that the Baltics banned fish exports to Belarus, saying there was no such EU or Belarus ban and that Baltic shipments rose.

Latvia’s Defence Posture: NATO chief Mark Rutte met PM Andris Kulbergs in Brussels, pointing to a recent Russian drone incident over Latvia as proof of both Moscow’s “dangerous” tactics and NATO’s deterrence. Baltic Security & Infrastructure: The EU is funding €40m to strengthen submarine cable repair capacity and creating Baltic Sea and Mediterranean hubs, with Latvia among the participating countries—aimed at faster detection and response to sabotage. Air Defence Upgrades (Region): Estonia received the first IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defence components from Diehl, boosting its ability to counter drones and cruise missiles at longer ranges. Ukraine War Diplomacy: Pakistan urged the UN Security Council to restart dialogue and push for an immediate ceasefire, with Latvia among the supporters of the Ukraine-focused meeting. Hybrid Threat Warning: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may stage hybrid provocations (drones, missiles, other actions) against the Baltics or Poland to pressure NATO to stop supporting Ukraine. EU Defence Finance (Latvia): Latvia signed a €3.5bn EU defence loan under the SAFE programme for drone technology development. Public IT & Media Oversight: Latvia launched a public platform for real-time monitoring of political radio ads.

Latvia’s security posture: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may stage hybrid provocations against the Baltic states or Poland—using drones, missiles and other “signals” to pressure NATO to stop supporting Ukraine—raising fears of miscalculation. NATO in the spotlight: NATO chief Mark Rutte met Latvia’s PM Andris Kulbergs in Brussels ahead of the Ankara summit, pointing to the recent Baltic Air Policing drone incident as proof of deterrence and defence readiness. Air defence upgrades: Estonia took delivery of its first German IRIS-T medium-range air defence system, a move seen as a major leap for Baltic protection; Latvia’s own drone-defence cooperation with Ukraine is also in focus, with Latvia signing a 10-year drone agreement while Estonia reportedly delayed. Public transparency in politics: Latvian startup Spotwise launched a free platform to track political radio ads in real time, aiming to pull Latvia’s radio campaign “black box” into public view. EU energy transition debate: Eastern and Central European governments, including Latvia, urged the EU to strengthen the ETS modernisation fund for poorer members as the Commission prepares its post-2030 carbon-market overhaul. Regional context: A Riga-based Russian journalist, Grigory Nekhoroshev—who exposed Putin’s alleged secret affair—was found dead after reportedly eating poisonous mushrooms.

EU Defence Finance: Latvia signed a nearly €3.5bn EU SAFE defence loan to speed up drones, guided missiles and anti-drone systems, with procurement speed and deterrence on the eastern flank front and centre. Counter-Drone Cooperation: Latvia also signed a broader 10-year “drone agreement” with Ukraine in Tallinn, while Estonia reportedly held back over missing preliminary details and readiness concerns. Baltic Security Watch: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may use hybrid provocations—drones and other actions—to pressure NATO states to stop backing Ukraine. Air Defence Upgrade: Estonia took delivery of its first German IRIS-T medium-range system, a major step up from short-range coverage. Political Transparency: Latvia launched a public platform to monitor political radio ads in real time, aiming to make radio campaigning less of a “black box.” UN Diplomacy & Civilian Cost: A UN senior official urged the Security Council to restart efforts for a full Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, citing ongoing mass civilian harm. Democracy & Civic Life: Latvia’s FK Cēsis media director Karīna Martinova was selected to represent the country at a Council of Europe democracy hackathon focused on fighting hate speech.

EU Defence Funding: Latvia has signed a nearly €3.5 billion loan under the EU’s SAFE programme, with money earmarked for drones, guided missiles, anti-drone tech and expanding Latvia’s defence industry—while also supporting limited assistance to Ukraine through 2028. Security & Airspace Pressure: The deal comes as Riga responds to Russian electronic warfare and drone incursions that have repeatedly pushed into Latvian airspace. Public Safety Over Holidays: Police in Latvia are running intensified road checks until June 28, focusing on drunk driving during the holiday period. Weather for Līgo & Jāņi: Forecasts point to mostly dry conditions for Līgo Day, with some fog possible overnight, and more mixed weather around Jāņu Night—clouds with light rain in parts of western/central Latvia and locally developing thunderstorms in the east. Riga Film Industry: Submissions are open for the 2026 RIGA IFF SHOWCASE and SHORT RIGA Test Screenings, with applications due by mid-August. Latvian Finance Regulation: Latvijas Banka has issued a licence to SIA AlphaRoute for crypto-asset services under MiCA.

EU Defense Financing: Latvia has signed a nearly €3.5 billion SAFE defense loan in Riga, joining the eighth EU country in the scheme. The money is earmarked for drones, guided missiles, anti-drone systems, and expanding Latvia’s defense industry, with a clear focus on faster procurement and deterrence on the eastern flank. Security Context: The deal comes as Russian electronic warfare and misdirected drones have repeatedly pushed threats into Latvian airspace, prompting Riga to plan interceptor drone units for the eastern border. EU Diplomacy Tensions: Separately, EU leaders are still split over how to handle contacts with Moscow, after European Council President Antonio Costa’s Kremlin outreach sparked criticism—especially from Nordic and Baltic states—over whether the EU should prioritize pressure over talks. Domestic Governance & Oversight: In Latvia’s financial sector, Latvijas Banka has issued a crypto-asset services licence to SIA AlphaRoute under the EU’s MiCA framework, authorising custody, trading, exchange, and transfer services.

EU Defence Financing: Latvia has signed a nearly €3.5bn SAFE defence loan, becoming the eighth EU country in the programme, with funds aimed at unmanned aerial systems, guided missiles, anti-drone capabilities and faster procurement to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank. Latvian Finance & Regulation: Latvijas Banka granted a licence to SIA AlphaRoute to provide crypto-asset services under the EU’s MiCA framework, including custody, trading and exchange functions. Supreme Court & Environment: Estonia’s Supreme Court struck down a 2020 wolf hunting quota as unlawful for failing to properly account for the Bern Convention’s strict protection rules. Public Safety: Latvia’s police are running intensified road patrols through June 28, focusing on drunk driving checks during the holiday period. Politics Watch: The “Latvia First” (LPV) party is gaining attention in polls ahead of the next Saeima, pitching “Latvia first” sovereignty plus closer ties with the US, NATO and the EU. International Context: EU leaders are split after European Council President Antonio Costa’s Kremlin outreach, with Baltic and Nordic states among the most disturbed.

Road Safety Crackdown: Latvian police are stepping up patrols until June 28, focusing on drunk driving checks after multiple stops in Latgale, including cases where drivers faced administrative penalties. Defense Finance: Latvia has signed a nearly €3.5bn EU SAFE defense loan to speed up drones, guided missiles, and anti-drone systems, with a push to strengthen the eastern flank and Latvia’s defense industry. Crypto Regulation: Latvijas Banka granted a licence to SIA AlphaRoute to provide crypto-asset services under the EU’s MiCA framework, joining a small group of authorised providers. EU-Russia Diplomacy: EU Council President Antonio Costa defended Kremlin outreach to open direct communication channels, exposing divisions among member states over whether the bloc should prioritize pressure or talks. Courts & Environment: Latvia’s regionally relevant legal story: Estonia’s Supreme Court struck down a 2020 wolf hunting quota as unlawful for failing to account for the Bern Convention’s strict protection rules. Border Pressure in the Baltics: Lithuania is tightening monitoring on its border with Latvia over secondary migration, using more surveillance and patrols while insisting it’s not a full reintroduction of internal border controls.

EU-Russia Diplomacy Rift: EU Council President Antonio Costa defended “brief” Kremlin contacts to open a direct channel, but Nordic and Baltic leaders (including Latvia’s PM Andris Kulbergs) warned there’s no point in talking if Moscow won’t engage. Latvia-Ukraine Defense Ties: Latvia signed a 10-year “drone deal” with Ukraine in Tallinn, aiming for about €110m in the first two years, with annual support volumes to be set later. Ukraine Aid Push: At Ramstein, nine countries pledged over $1bn under the PURL program for US weapons; Latvia is among the contributors, alongside Lithuania, Luxembourg, Iceland and Australia. Latvian Court Watch: Latvia’s Supreme Court overturned an acquittal in the “second digital television” case, sending it back for a new hearing over how losses and evidence were assessed. Domestic Governance & Media: Latvia’s ICT procurement moratorium and plans to overhaul state ICT governance, plus the ongoing LSM rebranding controversy, are driving fresh debate about political control and reform momentum. EU Budget Fight: EU leaders agreed to target an October preliminary deal on the €2tn long-term budget (2028–2034), with net payers pushing cuts and eastern/southern states fearing agriculture and cohesion losses.

Latvia Politics: “Latvia First” (LPV) is climbing in polls ahead of the next Saeima, pitching “Latvia first” sovereignty plus close ties to the US, NATO and the EU. EU Diplomacy: European Council President António Costa defended “brief” contacts with Moscow to open a channel, but the move sparked sharp backlash in Brussels; Latvian PM Andris Kulbergs said there’s no point in a diplomatic channel if Russia won’t engage. Ukraine Support: At Ramstein, nine countries pledged over $1B under the PURL program for US weapons; Latvia is among the contributors, alongside Lithuania, Luxembourg, Iceland and Australia. Defense & Security: Latvia’s army commander Kaspars Pudāns was promoted to lieutenant general; meanwhile, the Saeima approved tougher criminal liability for drone and other airborne-device crimes. Energy & Economy: Conexus Baltic Grid plans higher gas transmission tariffs from Oct 2026; the Saeima also extended the reduced diesel excise tax to year-end. Courts & Governance: Latvia’s Supreme Court overturned an acquittal in the digital television case involving Ainārs Šlesers and Andris Šķēle, sending it back for a new hearing. International: Lithuania tightened monitoring on its border with Latvia over secondary migration flows.

EU Budget Fight: EU leaders in Brussels are locked in a high-stakes negotiation over the bloc’s €2 trillion long-term budget (2028–2034), with “Friends of Cohesion” pushing to protect agriculture and regional funding while “frugal” net-payers led by Germany and the Netherlands back steep cuts—an approach the European Parliament says is too weak. Ukraine Support: At the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Zelenskyy said partners pledged over $2.5B, including major air-defense and drone-related funding, as NATO chief Rutte called it a “window of opportunity” to keep pressure on Russia. Latvia in the Mix: Latvia is among countries backing the PURL model for buying US equipment for Ukraine, and it’s also tied to the cohesion budget coalition. Baltic Defense Context: A U.S. Navy commander said Middle East naval lessons are shaping NATO’s approach to keeping Baltic sea routes open during crises. Energy Costs: Latvia’s gas transmission operator Conexus plans tariff changes from October, including a first-stage rise and a shift toward a capacity-based model.